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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020
Intermittent bursts of deep convection are maintaining the
circulation of Norbert. First-light visible satellite imagery shows
the latest burst over the northeastern potion of the cyclone with a
partially exposed low-level center. The initial intensity is being
held at 25 kt, and is supported by the latest Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as data from an
earlier ASCAT overpass.
The environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to change much
over the next few days, with perhaps some slight increase in the
atmospheric moisture in about 24 h. Therefore, only minor
fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By
72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter
a more stable atmosphere, which should limit convection and cause
Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible
that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to
be declared a remnant low before that time.
Norbert has been nearly stationary since the previous advisory, and
very little motion is expected today due to a lack of steering
currents. A mid-level ridge is forecast to slowly build to the
northeast of the cyclone Friday through the weekend, which should
cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By
late in the forecast period, the forecast track becomes quite
uncertain, as there are now indications that whatever is left of
Norbert may interact with a disturbance to its west. The latest NHC
track forecast is little changed from the previous one through 72 h,
but is left of that track beyond 72 h due to a shift in the
consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/1500Z 13.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 13.0N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 13.0N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 13.4N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 15.5N 108.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 15.8N 109.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Latto
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