ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020
 
Marie's structure has not changed significantly since the previous 
advisory.  A recent AMSR microwave image showed that the hurricane 
continues to have a closed eyewall that is a little thin on the 
southeast side, but there are no clear indications that an eyewall 
replacement is occuring.  Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB 
diverged from 6 hours ago, with TAFB's going up to T6.5 and SAB's 
falling to T5.5.  In addition, final-T numbers from the objective 
ADT scheme have decreased since six hours ago.  Because of the 
estimate discrepancies, the initial intensity is being held at 115 
kt.

Marie is moving west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt, just a 
little to the left of and slower than the previous motion estimate. 
A large mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United 
States continues to be the main driver of Marie's motion, but the 
hurricane should begin to reach a break in the ridge and turn toward 
the northwest in the next 24 hours.  After that time, a general 
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest should continue 
through the end of the forecast period.  The spread in the guidance 
does increase a bit by days 4 and 5, which appears to be related to 
the depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with the steering 
flow.  Overall, though, the guidance envelope has not shifted, and 
the NHC forecast was only slowed down a bit to be more in line with 
the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aid.

Marie should remain in a low-shear environment and over waters 
warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 24 hours, during which 
time some additional strengthening is possible.  Any 
intensification could be thwarted by an eyewall replacement, 
but as stated above, that does not appear to be occuring at this 
time.  Increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters 
should induce a definitive weakening trend after 24 hours, with 
Marie falling below hurricane strength by day 3, and then becoming 
a tropical depression by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast has 
been adjusted downward a bit during the weakening phase and lies 
near or just above the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 16.5N 124.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
 
NNNN