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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020
 
Recent microwave data and satellite images indicate that Marie has 
become much better organized over the past several hours, with a 
nearly completely closed eye noted in a 0451Z AMSU composite 
microwave overpass. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 
kt, based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates 
from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMMS ADT and SATCON.
 
Marie appears to have resumed its anticipated rapid intensification 
(RI), and this RI should continue for the next day or so while the 
hurricane remains in an environment of very low vertical wind shear 
while over warm waters. After 48 h, the cyclone is forecast to begin 
moving over progressively cooler waters, while encountering 
increasing vertical wind shear and a drier, more stable atmospheric 
environment. These factors should cause Marie to begin weakening by 
Saturday. Rapid weakening could occur by late this weekend when the 
cyclone is expected to be over waters with SSTs cooler than 26 
degrees C while vertical wind shear becomes greater than 25 kt. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP corrected 
consensus aid HCCA and the DSHP guidance. 

The initial motion is 280/15 kt. Marie is forecast to continue 
moving westward around a subtropical ridge to its north and 
northeast for the next 12 to 24 hours. A gradual turn to the 
west-northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected to 
occur beginning later tonight as the ridge weakens slightly. By late 
in the forecast period, a turn to the northwest should occur as 
Maria reaches a break in the ridge. The models are generally in 
good agreement on this scenario, but vary somewhat in how sharp of a 
turn to the right Marie makes later on in the forecast period. The 
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, 
and lies near the various track consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0900Z 14.8N 118.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 16.0N 122.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 18.0N 126.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  03/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 19.8N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 21.1N 132.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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