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TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 116.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  90SE 120SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.1N 118.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  80SE 100SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 19.8N 120.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  80SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.2N 122.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.9N 123.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 116.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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