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Tropical Depression Karina Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020
 
Karina has significantly devolved over the past day or so as it has
moved into an increasingly hostile environment characterized by
cool waters, dry mid-level air and increasing southerly 
vertical wind shear. While latest visible satellite images show a 
well-developed low-cloud swirl, infrared imagery shows a lack of 
deep convection, and the initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt 
for this advisory, supported by a 1730Z ASCAT-C pass.
 
The system is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt, steered by
a mid-level ridge to its east. With significant deep convection not 
expected to redevelop, Karina is expected to degenerate to a remnant 
low by tonight, and the increasingly shallow remnant will be steered
by a low-level high centered to the northwest. This will cause a
turn toward the west, and then southwest, before dissipation occurs
in a couple of days. The new official forecast closely follows the
previous and is supported by global model guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 23.0N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  17/1800Z 23.9N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/0600Z 24.0N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  18/1800Z 23.7N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/0600Z 23.3N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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