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Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
800 AM PDT Mon Sep 14 2020
 
There has been little change to the appearance of Karina over the 
past several hours, with a large area of deep convection remaining 
displaced mostly to the southwest of the center due to moderate 
northeasterly shear. Because the general appearance of the cyclone 
is unchanged, the initial intensity remains 40 kt based on earlier 
ASCAT data. 

The shear is expected to slowly relax over the next 24 h while the 
system remains over relatively warm waters, and some slight 
strengthening is possible during that time. After 24 h, Karina is 
forecast to cross the 26 degrees C SST isotherm and begin to enter a 
drier, more stable atmospheric environment. These factors should 
cause Karina to steadily weaken beginning by late Tuesday. By 72 h, 
the cyclone should be over water temperatures of less than 24C, and 
the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h, if 
not sooner. The low is then forecast to dissipate by day 5. The NHC 
intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in 
good agreement with the various multi-model consensus aids. 

Karina has resumed a northwestward movement, and the initial motion 
is 305/7 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue while 
the deep convection persists, as the cyclone is steered by a 
mid-level ridge to its north and northeast. Once the cyclone has 
weakened and lost most of its convection, it is expected to turn 
toward the west under the influence of the low-level flow. The track 
guidance has shifted northward at most time frames, and the latest 
NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right as well, but is 
still to the south of most of the track guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 18.8N 119.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 20.0N 120.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 21.2N 122.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 22.3N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  17/0000Z 23.2N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 23.7N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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