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Tropical Depression Iselle Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020
Iselle is skirting the line between tropical cyclone and remnant
low, producing a small amount of deep convection during the past few
hours. While this isn't particularly organized thunderstorm
activity, for now it is enough to keep advisories going another 6
hours. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, near the latest TAFB
T-number. Iselle is still expected to degenerate into a remnant
low later today due to persistent easterly shear and a dry and
stable environment. Model guidance all show the system becoming a
trough by Tuesday, so the dissipation phase has been pushed ahead
from the last forecast. The guidance also remains in good agreement
on a northward track today, followed by a north-northwest turn
overnight. The track is shifted a bit to the east because of a more
eastward initial position, otherwise it is unchanged.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/1500Z 23.0N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/0000Z 24.0N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 31/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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