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Tropical Depression Iselle Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142020
900 AM MDT Sun Aug 30 2020
 
Iselle is skirting the line between tropical cyclone and remnant 
low, producing a small amount of deep convection during the past few 
hours. While this isn't particularly organized thunderstorm 
activity, for now it is enough to keep advisories going another 6 
hours.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, near the latest TAFB 
T-number.  Iselle is still expected to degenerate into a remnant 
low later today due to persistent easterly shear and a dry and 
stable environment. Model guidance all show the system becoming a 
trough by Tuesday, so the dissipation phase has been pushed ahead 
from the last forecast.  The guidance also remains in good agreement 
on a northward track today, followed by a north-northwest turn 
overnight.  The track is shifted a bit to the east because of a more 
eastward initial position, otherwise it is unchanged. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 23.0N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 24.0N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  31/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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