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Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132020
900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020

A burst of strong convection has developed near the center of 
Hernan during the past several hours, but overall the storm remains 
poorly organized.  Indeed, a westerly surface wind observed in the 
Isla Marias Islands to the north of the center makes it unclear if 
a closed circulation still exists, a question that upcoming 
scatterometer data will hopefully resolve.  The initial intensity 
remains 35 kt based mainly on satellite intensity estimates from 
TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/7 kt.  The 
cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then west- 
northwestward as it rotates around the northeastern side of the 
approaching Tropical Storm Iselle.  The new forecast track is nudged 
to the north of the previous track and lies near the various 
consensus models.

A combination of continued strong easterly shear and interaction 
with the larger Iselle should cause Hernan to weaken during the 
next 48 h or so.  The new intensity forecast shows the system 
weakening to a depression after 12 h and degenerating to a remnant 
low by 36 h.  After that, the cyclone is currently forecast to 
degenerate to a trough by 60 h as it gets absorbed into Iselle, and 
several of the global models suggest this could happen earlier.  The 
new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 20.5N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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