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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
Intermittent bursts of convection continue to develop near the
depression's center, before northeasterly shear re-exposes the
center of circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that the
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. None of the
global or regional models make the cyclone a tropical storm, with
the only guidance suggesting strengthening being the SHIPS at the
end of the forecast period, when the vertical wind shear may
finally abate. However,the atmospheric environment begins to dry
out by that time. The official forecast no longer shows
intensification, and keeps the cyclone a depression for the duration
of the 5-day forecast.
The depression continues to meander westward, now at 2 kt. A low-
to mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to
move the cyclone slowly westward this morning. The ridge is
forecast to weaken, which should allow the depression to gain a
little latitude later this weekend through early next week.
Regardless of this motion, the system will not move very far over
the next several days. The official forecast is very near the
previous one, and is close to the consensus track guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 13.4N 133.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 13.2N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 13.5N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 13.9N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 14.2N 135.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 14.5N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 14.4N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
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