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Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 AM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
 
Intermittent bursts of convection continue to develop near the 
depression's center, before northeasterly shear re-exposes the 
center of circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass shows that the 
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. None of the 
global or regional models make the cyclone a tropical storm, with 
the only guidance suggesting strengthening being the SHIPS at the 
end of the forecast period, when the vertical wind shear may 
finally abate.  However,the atmospheric environment begins to dry 
out by that time. The official forecast no longer shows 
intensification, and keeps the cyclone a depression for the duration 
of the 5-day forecast. 

The depression continues to meander westward, now at 2 kt. A low- 
to mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to 
move the cyclone slowly westward this morning. The ridge is 
forecast to weaken, which should allow the depression to gain a 
little latitude later this weekend through early next week. 
Regardless of this motion, the system will not move very far over 
the next several days. The official forecast is very near the 
previous one, and is close to the consensus track guidance.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0900Z 13.4N 133.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/1800Z 13.3N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/0600Z 13.2N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/1800Z 13.5N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  17/0600Z 13.9N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  17/1800Z 14.2N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  18/0600Z 14.5N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  19/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  20/0600Z 14.4N 136.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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