ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102020
200 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020
 
ASCAT-B data valid around 1900 UTC showed max winds a little higher 
than 30 kt associated with the rain-free circulation of the 
depression. However, since that time, the convective structure of 
the cyclone has degraded substantially and if it was previously 
producing winds of tropical-storm-force, it likely no longer is 
doing so at this time. Therefore, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is held at 30 kt.
 
Only minor fluctuations in the intensity and structure of the 
depression are expected for the next 3 days due to strong 
northeasterly wind shear. Assuming the system doesn't dissipate at 
some point during that period of time, the upper-level winds could 
become less hostile early next week. The dynamical guidance 
generally indicates that the tropical cyclone will hang on and 
modest strengthening is possible early next week.  No changes 
were made to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the 
multi-model consensus.
 
Likewise, only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track 
forecast. The depression is still forecast to meander for the next 5 
days, initially west-southwestward to westward, then northwestward 
over the weekend. The strength of a low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north of the cyclone is the primary factor in the steering flow. 
While there are slight variations from model to model on the speed 
and heading of the tropical cyclone, they all agree that it won't 
move much through the early portion of next week, and possibly even 
beyond that. The NHC forecast essentially splits the difference 
between the previous official forecast, HCCA, and TVCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 13.5N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 13.3N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 13.2N 133.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 13.4N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 13.8N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 14.2N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 14.5N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 14.6N 135.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 14.5N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
NNNN