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Hurricane DOUGLAS

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020
The intensity of Douglas has leveled off in the overnight hours 
with the eyewall convection weakening, but the eye temperatures 
becoming a lot warmer, suggesting that the system has become a 
little more steady state.  The wind speed is kept at 105 kt, which 
nearly matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON).  The 
cyclone has less than a day over warm water left to intensify before 
it encounters SSTs less than 26C.  Douglas should only slowly 
weaken thereafter during the next few days due to the cooler waters 
along the predicted track since the vertical shear should remain 
low through Saturday.  As the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian 
Islands on Sunday, while the SSTs increase, so does the shear, and 
thus a continued weakening is forecast.  Model guidance is 
consistent from the last forecast, and no significant changes were 
made to the NHC wind speed prediction.

Douglas has been moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or 
290/17. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central 
Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general 
course and speed for the next couple of days, with some 
deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend.  While the 
guidance remains in very good agreement, the only significant 
change to note is that this forecast is a bit faster than the 
previous one, but not as fast as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.
Key Messages:
1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect 
portions of the state beginning on Sunday.  Interests on the 
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas 
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
INIT  23/1500Z 13.6N 135.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
Forecaster Blake