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Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020
200 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2020
The depression continues to move over waters colder than 25 degrees
Celsius, and its low-level center is exposed to the east of a
relatively small area of deep convection. A very recent ASCAT
pass showed maximum winds of 30 kt, and that remains the
initial intensity for this advisory. This estimate is also in
agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications from TAFB and
SAB. The cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should
cause the remaining deep convection to dissipate soon, which will
also lead to a gradual decrease in the system's winds. The official
forecast therefore shows the depression degenerating into a remnant
low by 24 hours. The remnant low is now shown to dissipate by 60
hours, although global model guidance suggests that this could
occur even sooner than that.
The depression's initial motion is still northwestward, or 305/9
kt, although the system appears to be gradually making a turn to
the left. As it becomes a shallower system with the loss of deep
convection, the depression is expected to turn west-northwestward
soon, and then westward and west-southwestward during the next
24-36 hours within the low-level trade winds. The GFS is somewhat
of a northern outlier on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast
more closely follows the ECMWF and the various consensus models.
This puts it very close to the forecast from the previous advisory.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 19.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 19.4N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 22/0600Z 18.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 22/1800Z 18.1N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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