ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072020 200 PM PDT Mon Jul 20 2020 The depression continues to move over waters colder than 25 degrees Celsius, and its low-level center is exposed to the east of a relatively small area of deep convection. A very recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of 30 kt, and that remains the initial intensity for this advisory. This estimate is also in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications from TAFB and SAB. The cooler waters and a drier, more stable atmosphere should cause the remaining deep convection to dissipate soon, which will also lead to a gradual decrease in the system's winds. The official forecast therefore shows the depression degenerating into a remnant low by 24 hours. The remnant low is now shown to dissipate by 60 hours, although global model guidance suggests that this could occur even sooner than that. The depression's initial motion is still northwestward, or 305/9 kt, although the system appears to be gradually making a turn to the left. As it becomes a shallower system with the loss of deep convection, the depression is expected to turn west-northwestward soon, and then westward and west-southwestward during the next 24-36 hours within the low-level trade winds. The GFS is somewhat of a northern outlier on this cycle, and the NHC track forecast more closely follows the ECMWF and the various consensus models. This puts it very close to the forecast from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 19.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 19.4N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z 18.8N 137.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 18.1N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN
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