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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
After the earlier convective hiatus, Cristina is now going through
a little bit of a bursting phase with new inner-core convection
developing just west of the center, with the latter feature showing
up quite nicely in 0139 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. The
intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on satellite
classifications of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and 57 kt and 59 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively.
Cristina is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The strong
subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the tropical cyclone
should keep Cristina moving in that general direction tonight,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at about the same
forward speed by Thursday morning. By 96 h and beyond, a rapidly
weakening and vertically shallow Cristina should turn westward under
the influence of brisk easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC
model guidance remains in strong agreement on this evolving track
scenario, and the new track forecast closely follows the tightly
packed consensus models, which are a little south of the previous
advisory track.
Environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to remain
conducive for strengthening during the next 36-48 h while Cristina
remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C. By 72 h and beyond, the
cyclone will be moving over much cooler water characterized by SSTs
near 22C by 96-120h, which is expected to induce steady weakening
despite the low vertical wind shear conditions. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN
intensity consensus, with Cristina still expected to become a
hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 16.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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