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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number  14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP032020
1100 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020
 
A burst of deep convection in the northwest quadrant of Boris 
flared earlier this morning and has collapsed in the past hour, 
exposing the low-level circulation center. Dvorak Current Intensity 
estimates range from 1.0 at SAB to 1.5 out of PHFO and ADT, while 
JTWC has deemed the system unclassifiable. Given the recent burst of 
deep convection, we will hold the initial intensity at 30 kt, 
though this could be generous. The depression continues to move 
toward the west (265 degrees) at 6 kt.

Boris is expected to slowly weaken over the next couple of days. 
Southerly vertical wind shear will limit the depth of the 
circulation and will likely only allow deep convection to 
periodically flare and collapse near the center. The system will 
also continue to ingest relatively dry low- to mid-level air. As a 
result, the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low 
tonight or Sunday and dissipate on Monday. The official intensity 
forecast has changed little and remains in line with LGEM, SHIPS, 
and ICON. Guidance remains in good agreement that a deep ridge to 
the north is expected to push the increasingly shallow system 
toward the west then west-southwest until dissipation.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 12.3N 141.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 12.1N 142.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 11.6N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  29/0600Z 11.0N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Wroe
 
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