ZCZC HFOTCDCP1 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 14 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020 1100 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020 A burst of deep convection in the northwest quadrant of Boris flared earlier this morning and has collapsed in the past hour, exposing the low-level circulation center. Dvorak Current Intensity estimates range from 1.0 at SAB to 1.5 out of PHFO and ADT, while JTWC has deemed the system unclassifiable. Given the recent burst of deep convection, we will hold the initial intensity at 30 kt, though this could be generous. The depression continues to move toward the west (265 degrees) at 6 kt. Boris is expected to slowly weaken over the next couple of days. Southerly vertical wind shear will limit the depth of the circulation and will likely only allow deep convection to periodically flare and collapse near the center. The system will also continue to ingest relatively dry low- to mid-level air. As a result, the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or Sunday and dissipate on Monday. The official intensity forecast has changed little and remains in line with LGEM, SHIPS, and ICON. Guidance remains in good agreement that a deep ridge to the north is expected to push the increasingly shallow system toward the west then west-southwest until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 12.3N 141.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 12.1N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 11.6N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 11.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Wroe NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2020 12:11:02 UTC