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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020
 
Thunderstorm activity has waned significantly near the center of the 
small cyclone, and is now restricted to the southwestern quadrant 
due to the ingestion of a large slug of dry mid-level air from the 
north and northeast. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is 
based on continuity with the previous advisory, and satellite 
current intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 from TAFB and 
SAB, respectively.

The small depression has been moving westward or 275/07 kt. The 
cyclone is forecast by the global models to move generally 
west-northwestward for the next 3 days along the southern periphery 
of a deep-layer ridge. Thereafter, a weakening and more shallow 
system is expected to turn toward the west and then west-southwest 
after moving into the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC track 
forecast is south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to 
a blend of the consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA.
 
Despite moving through a regime of very light wind shear and over 
SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 2-3 days, the depression will 
skirt along the southwestern edge of an expansive region of cool, 
dry air located over the mid-Pacific. The statistical SHIPS and LGEM 
intensity models now show no intensification during the next 5 days, 
while the global and regional models show only very modest 
strengthening. The small size of the cyclone argues for at least 
some strengthening since only a small increase in convection 
can quickly spin up the low-level field. However, proximity to the 
aforementioned cool, stable air should prevent any significant 
intensification. By 72h and beyond, the unfavorable combination of 
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, marginal SSTS, and a 
drier air mass are expected to cause the tropical cyclone to 
degenerate into a remnant low over the Central Pacific hurricane 
basin. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than 
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models IVCN 
and HCCA.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 10.6N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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