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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020
There has been little change in the organization of the depression
since the previous advisory. Deep convection that was located over
the southern portion of the circulation waned during the early
afternoon, but a new convective burst has developed within the past
couple of hours to the south of the exposed low-level center.
The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on the earlier
ASCAT data and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.
Although the depression is moving over warm waters and within an
area of low wind shear, water vapor imagery indicates that mid-level
dry air is located near and just north of the cyclone which is
likely the cause of the lack of convection over the northern
portion of the circulation. As a result, only modest strengthening
is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, dry
air and gradually decreasing SSTs along the forecast track are
likely to cause weakening. The latest intensity guidance is
slightly lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new official intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP corrected
consensus aid.
The depression has been moving more westward than expected, with an
initial motion estimate of 285/8 kt. A cut-off low well to the
north-northwest of the depression is expected to weaken the
deep-layer ridge that is currently steering the cyclone. This
should cause the depression to turn northwestward on Thursday, with
this motion continuing over the next couple of days. By 60-72 h,
the weakening tropical cyclone should turn back toward the west as
it is steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period, the
remnant low is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the trade
wind flow over the central Pacific. The latest track model
envelope has shifted somewhat southward, which has required a
southward adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC forecast
lies between the previous advisory and the latest consensus aids,
along the northern portion of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 10.6N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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