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Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012020
800 AM PDT Sun Apr 26 2020

Deep convection has been waning quickly in the southeastern quadrant
since the previous advisory, and the system barely met Dvorak
criteria for identifying it as a tropical cyclone at 1200 UTC. Given
that the 0446 UTC ASCAT-A overpass mentioned in the previous
discussion revealed a fairly sizable area of 28-30 kt winds in the
northeastern quadrant, there might be one or two 30-kt vectors
remaining despite the recent decline in the convective pattern, and
thus the intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/08 kt. A strong
subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to
gradually turn the cyclone toward the west-northwest later today and
then westward by tonight, with a westward motion being maintained
thereafter until the system dissipates by late Monday. The new NHC
track forecast is essentially just an extension of the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus
track models

Deep-layer dry air and cooler sea-surface temperatures, combined
with strong westerly shear of 25-30 kt, should continue to erode
what little bit of convection remains, causing the system to rapidly
degenerate into a remnant low by this afternoon or evening. The low
is then expected to dissipate by Monday night. The new intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows
the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/1500Z 15.7N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 16.3N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1200Z 16.8N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z 17.0N 124.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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