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Hurricane Iota Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020
...IOTA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE......EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WINDS,
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, AND EXTREME RAINFALL IMPACTS TO
SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NE OF ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA COLOMBIA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi
* The coast of northeastern Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Bluefields
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca to Punta
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion in Nicaragua and
Honduras. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed on Providencia and San Andres islands.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of Iota.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Iota was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA satellite
data near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 81.1 West. Iota is moving
toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast through landfall. After
landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected. On
the forecast track, the core of Iota will pass near or over
Providencia island during the next few hours, and make landfall
within the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras tonight.
Data from the aircraft and NOAA satellites indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with
higher gusts. Iota is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next 12 to 18 hours, and Iota could possibly be a
catastrophic category 5 hurricane when it approaches Central America
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter is 933 mb (27.55 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Hurricane Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
RAINFALL: Iota is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Thursday:
Honduras, northern Nicaragua, Guatemala, southern Belize: 8 to 16
inches (200 to 400 mm). Isolated maximum totals of 20-30 inches (500
to 750 mm) will be possible, especially from northeast Nicaragua
into northern Honduras.
Costa Rica and Panama: 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), with isolated
maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).
This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
El Salvador and southern Nicaragua: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches (250 mm).
WIND: Potentially catastrophic wind damage is expected where Iota's
eyewall moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
and Honduras beginning late tonight with tropical storm conditions
expected by late morning. Hurricane conditions are likely occurring
on the island of Providencia, with tropical storm conditions
expected through the remainder of this morning and possibly into the
early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring on
the island of San Andres, with hurricane conditions possible there
later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area in Nicaragua by late afternoon and in
the warning area in Honduras by tonight.
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds along the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, and Colombia during
the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.