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TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PINAR DEL RIO CUBA
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  83.8W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   0 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  83.8W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N  83.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.4N  84.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.2N  85.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N  86.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.9N  88.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.0N  90.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  30SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 35.0N  85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N  83.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 25/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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