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Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020
 
The eye of the hurricane remains well-defined this evening, 
although the surrounding cloud tops are beginning to warm a bit.  
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Epsilon a 
little while ago and found peak 700 mb flight level winds of 110 
kt, which continues to support an intensity of 100 kt.  The central 
pressure had fallen slightly since this afternoon, but recent 
center fixes suggest that it is leveling off.  Some fluctuations in 
intensity are possible over the next 12 hours or so due to 
inner-core processes.  Later on Thursday, a slow weakening trend is 
expected to begin as vertical shear over Epsilon should gradually 
increase.  The official intensity forecast is in good agreement 
with the latest model consensus.  By 96 hours, the global models 
indicate that the strong cyclone will merge with a frontal zone 
over the mid-latitudes, and the NHC forecast shows the system as 
extratropical by that time.  

Epsilon's motion has exhibited what is likely a trochoidal wobble, 
which is typical of slow-moving intense hurricanes.  This has 
resulted in a more westward track during the past 6 hours or so.  
The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt, and is indeed more 
westward than previous estimates.  However, recent satellite images 
indicate little short-term motion.  The track model guidance is in 
very good agreement that Epsilon will move northwestward and then 
north-northwestward on Friday and Friday night.  Later, the 
cyclone should move north of the subtropical ridge, and turn 
northward and northeastward.  By days 4-5, the cyclone should 
accelerate northeastward under the influence of the mid-latitude 
westerlies.  The official forecast is right on top of the latest 
corrected multi-model consensus guidance, HCCA and is only slightly 
west of the previous NHC track through 24 hours.  This puts the 
closest approach of Epsilon to Bermuda between 00Z and 06Z Friday.  
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda tonight, and 
continuing intermittently through late Thursday, when Epsilon is 
forecast to make its closest approach east of the island.  A 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Bermuda.
 
2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands.  These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/0300Z 29.6N  60.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  22/1200Z 30.5N  61.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  23/0000Z 31.8N  61.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  23/1200Z 33.2N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  24/0000Z 34.9N  62.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  24/1200Z 36.9N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  25/0000Z 39.2N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  26/0000Z 46.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  27/0000Z 56.0N  25.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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