ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020
 
...CENTER OF DELTA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast
from High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including 
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, 
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay.
 
A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from
High Island, Texas, eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the Texas coast from
west of High Island to San Luis Pass.  A Tropical Storm Watch has
also been issued along the northern Gulf coast from east of Grand
Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, including the
city of New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including 
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, 
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the 
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h).  A northwestward motion 
with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next 24 
hours.  A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday, 
and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on 
Friday and Friday night.  On the forecast track, the center of Delta 
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over 
the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and 
approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on 
Friday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over 
the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta 
is expected to become a major hurricane again.  Some weakening is 
is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal
tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from
Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels
along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause 
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters 
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the 
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion 
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake 
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3 
ft 

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding 
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, 
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
WIND:  Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within 
the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few 
hours.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch 
areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday 
with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area 
by Friday morning. 
 
RAINFALL:  Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across 
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result 
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches 
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions 
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle 
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash, 
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves 
farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts, 
is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swell will begin to affect 
portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These 
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN