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Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020
...DELTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and
discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and
the Isle of Youth.
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Rio Lagartos to Progresso
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 80.3 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass
southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan
Channel Tuesday night. Delta is forecast to move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday.
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
by early Tuesday. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions
are expected in the warning area Tuesday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area Tuesday night and tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday night.
RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
maximum rainfall as high as 10 inches possible, across portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. This rainfall may
result in areas of significant flash flooding.
Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
higher amounts, across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.
Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.