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HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL262020
0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO OCEAN
SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION
BAY...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...AND EAST
OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.
 
THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING
MOBILE BAY.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM RIO LAGARTOS TO DZILAM...MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU
LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE
BORGNE...
AND MOBILE BAY
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  90.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......120NE  80SE  80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  60SE   0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  90.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  90.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.7N  92.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N  93.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N  93.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N  92.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  30SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 100SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N  91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.2N  89.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N  85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N  90.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
 
 
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