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Tropical Storm Gamma Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 02 2020
...GAMMA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN
...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Cabo Catoche Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Punta Herrero to Puerto Costa Maya Mexico
* West of Cabo Catoche to Dzilam Mexico
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gamma was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Gamma is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days,
followed by a turn to the west or west-southwest. On the forecast
track, the center of Gamma should be near the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected before Gamma moves inland over the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. After landfall, slight
weakening or little change in strength is expected.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Tropical Storm Gamma can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
RAINFALL: Gamma is expected to produce rainfall of 4 to 8 inches
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and far western Cuba, with
maximum rainfall amounts as high as 10 to 15 inches possible across
the northeastern portion of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods.
A separate area of significant rain is expected to develop well away
from the center in the Mexican states of Campeche, Tabasco, and
northern Chiapas with rainfall of 8 to 12 inches and isolated
maximum amounts of 20 inches. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 5 inches is
expected in the Bay Islands of Honduras and over the Cayman Islands.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Saturday morning, and are possible within the
Tropical Storm Watch area on Saturday and Sunday.
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.