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TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL252020
0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH AND WEST OF CANCUN TO DZILAM MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF DZILAM TO CAMPECHE MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  87.5W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  45SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  87.5W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  87.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...120NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N  88.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.4N  89.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.8N  90.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.3N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N  90.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.5N  90.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N  87.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 05/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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