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Tropical Storm Wilfred Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
Helpful AMSR microwave imagery from near 4Z revealed that Wilfred 
consists of a small low embedded within a broader elongated
area of low pressure. A skinny, ragged band of convection wraps
around the western and southern portions of the tropical storm, but
Wilfred is only producing a small amount of convection near its 
center. Objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are 
generally near 35 kt, and the intensity is held at that value.
 
No noteworthy changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Wilfred should continue to move generally
west-northwestward for the next few days, steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. Small fluctuations in intensity are
possible for the next day or two, but Wilfred should be on the 
overall decline by the end of the weekend due to increasing wind 
shear and an expected influx of dry, stable air. The dynamical 
guidance consensus is that Wilfred will open into a trough and 
dissipate in about 72 h, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. 
Both the NHC track and intensity forecasts are based on the 
multi-model consensus throughout the forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/0900Z 13.1N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1800Z 13.8N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  20/0600Z 14.8N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  20/1800Z 15.8N  44.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/0600Z 16.5N  46.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  21/1800Z 16.8N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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