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Tropical Storm Vicky Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
There's been little change in Vicky's cloud pattern this afternoon.
What's left of the deep convection associated with Vicky is
displaced well to the east of the center. Cirrus clouds produced by
the outflow of Hurricane Teddy, located nearly 1000 miles to the
west-southwest of Vicky, are obscuring the sheared surface
circulation. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this
advisory in deference to the earlier scatterometer pass and due to
the fact that the cloud pattern has remained unchanged.
The UW-CIMSS SAT-Wind/shear products and water vapor imagery
reveal an interesting upper wind pattern consisting of an upper low
just to the west of Vicky and a narrow upper-tropospheric ridge to
the south of the cyclone. These upper-level features are
temporarily creating a very diffluent pattern which appears to be
offsetting the blistering westerly shear a bit. In any event,
Vicky is still forecast to gradually lose strength and degenerate to
a remnant low on Friday, which is in best agreement with the global
models and the statistical-dynamical intensity aids.
The initial motion estimate is more westward, or 270/08. Vicky
should continue moving westward for the next day or two before
turning west-southwestward in the low-level tradewind flow. The
new NHC track forecast is south of the previous one and is close to
the HCCA and TCVA multi-model consensus guidance.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/2100Z 21.5N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW