ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 03 2020
 
Omar continues to produce bursts of deep convection with the center 
occasionally obscured beneath the northern edge of the convective 
canopy.  Based on last evening's ASCAT pass and a recent 
classification of T2.0 from TAFB, the initial intensity remains 30 
kt.  Amazingly, 50 kt of north-northwesterly shear has not been 
enough to prevent deep convection from developing, likely because 
Omar remains in an unstable thermodynamic environment and over sea 
surface temperatures of 27-28 degrees Celsius.  These conditions 
are not expected to become less conducive for convective 
development, and the only thing that will likely make it harder for 
Omar to maintain convection will be the shear vector becoming 
increasingly out of phase with the storm motion vector during the 
next couple of days.  With the current round of convection ongoing, 
it may take a little while longer for Omar to degenerate to a 
remnant low, and that occurrence has been pushed to 24 hours in the 
NHC forecast.  Dissipation has been moved to 60 hours since all 
global models indicate that the remnant low's circulation should 
open up into a trough by then.

Omar is moving eastward (090/12 kt) along the northern periphery of 
the subtropical ridge.  A general eastward motion should continue 
for the next 24 hours, with Omar then turning toward the northeast 
by 48 hours ahead of an approaching cold front.  The NHC track 
forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance suite, 
and this new prediction is very close to the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0900Z 36.3N  62.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 36.0N  60.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 35.8N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  04/1800Z 36.1N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z 37.2N  55.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN