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Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2020
...DEPRESSION SHOWING SIGNS OF GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Punta Castilla Honduras
* Bay Islands of Honduras
* Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua northward to the Honduras/Nicaragua
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.
Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico, may be required later this evening or tonight.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen
was located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 81.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (29 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn
toward the west-northwest and northwest with a decrease in forward
speed is forecast on Friday, with a general northwest motion
continuing through at least Sunday. On the forecast track, the
center of the system will move near or over extreme northern
Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras, including the Bay Islands, on
Friday and approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico on Saturday. The center is then expected to cross the
Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move into the south-central
Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday.
The system could be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area later tonight and early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. These conditions will
spread westward along the coast of Honduras within the warning area
during the day on Friday.
RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following
rainfall accumulations through Sunday:
Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan:
3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall
may result in areas of flash flooding.
Honduras: 2 to 4 inches.
Jamaica and northern Nicaragua: 1 to 2 inches.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.