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Tropical Depression TEN

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020
Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a 
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of 
the Cabo Verde Islands.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of 
around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely 
undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30 
kt.  This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB. 
With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a 
potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm 
tonight.  After that time, the environment is forecast to become 
increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable 
thermodynamic conditions lie ahead.  As a result, weakening should 
begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low 
Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt.  The 
depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then 
west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it 
moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far 
eastern Atlantic.  The track guidance is in relatively good 
agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model 
INIT  31/2100Z 15.9N  20.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 17.3N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 18.5N  23.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 18.8N  25.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Brown