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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012020
1500 UTC SUN MAY 17 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO DUCK NC
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  77.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE   0SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N  77.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N  77.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.0N  76.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 34.3N  75.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.4N  73.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.3N  70.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N  68.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 36.5N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE  90SE  70SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 35.5N  64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N  77.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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