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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182019
200 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

Conventional satellite imagery and a series of microwave overpasses
indicate that the area of low pressure located about 1400 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
developed a well-defined center of circulation. The much improved
cloud pattern consists of prominent convective curved bands in the
east semicircle and recent bursts of deep convection with cold cloud
tops of -70C near the center. Dvorak intensity estimates from both
TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 30 kt, and advisories
are being initiated on a tropical depression at this time.

The intensity forecast is a bit hazy. However, all of the large-
scale models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show
only slight intensification through the 72 hour period. The
inhibiting contribution appears to be a rather dry low- to mid-level
surrounding environment. Beyond 72 hours, most of the global and
regional models show the cyclone weakening into a remnant low and
remaining embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).
Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for only modest strengthening
into a tropical storm in 12 hours, then weakening back to a
depression in 36 hours. Through the remainder of the forecast, the
cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days or less, as
the global guidance shows.

The initial motion appears to be a rather unpredictable slow drift
within weak low- to mid-level steering currents while attached to
the ITCZ. The global models are unanimous in maintaining an
erratic looping track pattern through the entire period, and the
official forecast follows suit, based primarily on a blend of the
GFS and ECMWF deterministic models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 10.1N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 10.3N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 10.8N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 11.4N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 11.6N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 11.1N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/1800Z 10.9N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z 11.7N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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