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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY...
...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 93.4W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
Barra de Tonala westward to Puerto Escondido.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra de Tonala to Puerto Escondido

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12
to 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.7 North, longitude 93.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h).  A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
day or so.  On this track, the disturbance is expected to move
inland over southeastern Mexico on Wednesday within the watch area.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is expected and the disturbance is forecast to
become a tropical storm later tonight or early Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with maximum totals of 20 inches
along the southwest coast of Mexico from Chiapas to Guerrero.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are expected across El Salvador and
southern Guatemala.  This rainfall could produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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