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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 100.4W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 100.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 16.0N 101.5W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  70SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE  80SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  80SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 27.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 100.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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