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Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1200 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2019

...POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF LORENA EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...28 KM W OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (16 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to cross
the coast of mainland Mexico during the next couple of hours,
followed by a motion across northwestern Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is likely before landfall.
After landfall, Lorena is expected to rapidly weaken, and the system
is forecast to dissipate over northwestern Mexico by Monday morning,
if not sooner.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storm conditions are likely occurring in the
tropical storm warning area along the coast of mainland Mexico.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 6 inches over central Sonora, and additional rainfall of less
than one inch over Baja California Sur through today. This rainfall
may result in life-threatening flash floods in Sonora.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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