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Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
600 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 109.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...95 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.  Additional warnings may be needed for portions
of this area later tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 109.5 West.  Lorena is now
moving toward the northwest at about 5 mph (8 km/h).  On the
forecast track, the core of the hurricane should move over or near
the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours if Lorena
moves inland.  If the hurricane moves over the Gulf of California,
it could strengthen instead.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45
miles (75 km).

The estimated central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja
California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in
flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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