ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
100 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA MOVING FARTHER OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Santa Fe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita
* Baja California peninsula from Los Barriles to Todos Santos

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 106.5 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected tonight, and a west-northwestward motion
at a slower forward speed should continue on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorena will move over the Pacific
waters to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula today and
tonight, and then pass near or or just south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula late Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
Lorena is forecast to re-gain hurricane strength within the next
day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of
the tropical storm warning area in southwestern Mexico through this
afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on
Friday within the tropical storm warning area in Baja California
Sur.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the southern Baja
California peninsula within the watch area as early as Friday night
or Saturday.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend:

Coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima and
Jalisco: 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches. This
rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides.

Far southern Baja California Sur: 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts around 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN