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Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
100 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 104.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena.  Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula on Thursday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
With the help of Mexican Navy automatic weather stations, at 100 AM
CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near
latitude 19.3 North, longitude 104.9 West.  Lorena is moving toward
the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and the forward speed is
expected to decrease a bit on Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
center of Lorena will continue moving near or over the southwestern
coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area on Thursday.
Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the
west-central coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach
southern Baja California Sur Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple
of days. However, if the center deviates a little to the right and
interacts with the high terrain, weakening could then occur.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).  A Mexican Navy automatic weather station located
near Manzanillo reported a wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) when the
center of Lorena moved nearby.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
southern portion of the warning area and will spread northwestward
along the coast on Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are expected to
occur on Thursday within the hurricane warning area.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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