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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

...CORE OF LORENA DID NOT SURVIVE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...HEADING FOR NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS A TROPICAL STORM...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 111.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF GUAYMAS MEXICO
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNE OF LORETO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Baja California peninsula and the Hurricane Watch for
mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Puerto Libertad.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to
Puerto Libertad.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere on the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico
should monitor the progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 111.1 West. Lorena is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 to 36 hours. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena is expected to continue
moving across the Gulf of California for the next 6 to 12 hours, and
then cross the northwestern coast of mainland Mexico on Sunday.

Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Lorena is expected to reach the coast as a tropical storm early
Sunday, but rapid weakening is anticipated thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by the crew of the Air Force
plane was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical-storms conditions are expected to spread northward
across the Gulf or California today and reach the tropical storm
warning area by later tonight.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Sunday night:

Sonora...3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 8 inches.
East coast of Baja California Sur and Northwest Sinaloa...additional
1 to 3 inches.

This rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will continue to affect portions
of the western coast of Mexico.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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