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Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
DEL SUR...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 109.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM ESE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
east coast of the Baja California Peninsula from La Paz to Santa
Rosalia.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a
Tropical Storm Warning for the east coast of the Baja California
Peninsula north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from Altata to Bahia Kino.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from Santa Rosalia to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Northwestern coast of mainland Mexico from from Altata to Bahia
Kino

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Santa
Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere on the Baja California Peninsula and the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of
Lorena.  Additional warnings may be needed for portions of this area
on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 109.7 West.  Lorena is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A general motion
toward the north-northwest or northwest is expected during the next
couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Lorena is
expected to move over the Gulf of California near the east coast of
the Baja California Peninsula through Saturday, then approach the
northwestern coast of mainland Mexico Saturday night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected through Saturday
night.  After that, Lorena is forecast to weaken.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).  An automated station in La Ventana, Mexico, recently
reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of
54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected to spread across the
hurricane warning area tonight through Saturday night.  Hurricane
and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane
watch area by Saturday or Saturday night.  Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area Saturday
and Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches over Baja California Sur and 2 to 4 inches over western
Sonora and far northwest Sinaloa through Sunday. Isolated maximum
amounts around 8 inches are possible in Baja California Sur. This
rainfall may result in life-threatening flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
western coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula
during the next few days.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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