ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...EYE OF HURRICANE LORENA ALREADY HUGGING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 109.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning and a
Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Baja California peninsula
from of San Evaristo to Santa Rosalia, and has issued a Tropical
Storm Watch for mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas.

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes
to Cabo San Lazaro
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
Santa Rosalia

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito
* Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Guaymas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case through tonight.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 109.3 West. Lorena has been
moving little during the past few hours, but the hurricane should
begin a northwesterly track tonight.  On this track, the core of
the hurricane should move along the spine of the Baja California
peninsula during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours if Lorena moves inland.  If the hurricane moves over the
Gulf of California, it could strengthen instead.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance
plane was 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula during
the next several hours. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by
Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across Baja
California Sur through the weekend. This rainfall may result in
flash flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

NNNN