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Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...HURRICANE LORENA CRAWLING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to
San Evaristo

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Cortes to Cabo San Lazaro

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San
Evaristo to Loreto
* West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Cabo San
Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the
progress of Lorena.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving
toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest with some increase in forward speed is expected on
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass
near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula
later today, and then gradually move away from the west coast of the
peninsula tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some additional strengthening is possible today, but
weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either
degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in a couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today,
with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning.
Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3
to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far
southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash
flooding.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California
peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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