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BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorena Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

...CENTER OF HURRICANE LORENA CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 105.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning
from Manzanillo southward.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of
Lorena.  Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located
near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 105.0 West. Lorena is moving
toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) but a gradual turn
to the northwest and west-northwest is expected today and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Lorena will continue moving near
or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane
warning area today and move back over water later today or
Friday.  Lorena is then expected to move away from the west-central
coast of Mexico and approach southern Baja California Sur Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some weakening is expected today while the circulation is
interacting with the high terrain. Once Lorena moves over water
again in 12 to 24 hours, re-strengthening is anticipated.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within
portions of the warning area and will spread northwestward along the
coast on Thursday.  Hurricane conditions are expected to occur
today within the hurricane warning area.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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