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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...CENTER OF LORENA TO PASS VERY CLOSE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY..
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 104.4W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo
* Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress
of Lorena.  Watches may be required for a portion of the southern
Baja California peninsula this evening or overnight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 104.4 West. Lorena is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).  A slower
northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the
southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area
tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move
west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late
Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday
night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast tonight, and Lorena is forecast to
become a hurricane as it nears the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is possible when Lorena moves west of the
coast of southwestern Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread
northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will
first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area within the
next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion
of the tropical storm warning area in the next few hours, and will
spread northward along the coast through Thursday night.

RAINFALL:  Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches
along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco.  This rainfall may produce life-
threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the
southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days.  These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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