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TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM LA PAZ TO PUERTO CORTES

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SAN EVARISTO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO LORETO
* WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUERTO
CORTES TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LORENA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.5W AT 20/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE  20SE  15SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  60SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.5W AT 20/0900Z
AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  40SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  10NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 108.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 20/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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