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TROPICAL STORM LORENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO
CORRIENTES.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ZIHUATANEJO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
* CABO CORRIENTES TO PUNTA MITA
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  60SE  80SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 103.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  60SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 103.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 18/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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